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Post by Larry Madsen on May 9, 2022 14:59:39 GMT -5
Today, I finally got the account to "safe harbor". The bleeding will stop! It's all still ROTH, but it's all in cash at a return of 0.01% Call me crazy, but the account had lost $13,000.00 in the past three months and about $1,700.00 in the past two days. Talking about an account of less than $200,000.00 ... actually $166,000.00 as of today. It's all in Schwab. It stays right there. They guided me through the trade process and had me do several of the trades myself that would have cost $25.00 per trade if I had them do it for me. I asked about (for lack of a better term) "Schwab branded" mutual funds that I could invest in at low cost. I had that experience with money I had invested at New York Life in the past, thought it was worth asking. He guided me to a whole bunch of funds that I can trade myself online for ZERO cost. As I scrolled though some of the tabs I came to a group of natural resource/precious metal funds that have shown 10 to 15% increases over the past 3 months ... while I lost $13,000.00 on the account. In the past I had asked the, now departed, advisors about these type funds. They flat out said, " that's not what we do." HUH? Anyway, I'll now be able to deal with this stuff myself working with no load options and no investment advisor fees. I'm a happy boy today. It will take a couple of days to complete the transition to cash on all the funds, but then I'll see where I want to go. I can already see some places I'd like to put some of it right away.
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Post by fkaJimmySee on May 10, 2022 4:59:22 GMT -5
Hi Larry -- hope this works out for you. We've taken a huge haircut in our investments, like everyone. This is maybe the fourth time in our investment history this has happened. But we remain as before -- my issue is its easy to bail but I have no idea when to get back in.
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Post by Larry Madsen on May 10, 2022 8:44:23 GMT -5
Hi. Jimmy. The good part is this account is just one of three and its not the bulk of our money. I had stopped most of the bleeding back on January 24th. The other accounts have all shown growth every month since that day. That fact kind of made this account all the more frustrating to watch. Funny thing … as I’m talking to the Schwab rep they are explaining the fee aspect of moving the accounts to cash. $25.00 per transaction on 13 individual investments. ($325.00). I’m thinking, hmm $325.00 to become safe … while I am watching the account cost me $700.00 (today) just by sitting here doing nothing, just watching it today. Don’t worry about the $325.00. 😜 As it turns out, when I cut out the advisor Schwab leaves me the fee agreement (for 60 days) that the a advisor had with them. In the end all 13 sell orders cost me just 0.08. Eight cents. As far as getting back in, I’ll let it rest until my days off next mon/tue. Then I’ll try moving some into a couple of natural resource , energy, precious metal type funds that have shown constant positive movement for years. Including this recent downturn. I won’t be trying to dump it all into anything any time too soon. I want to see something that gives me confidence in the future and I’m betting that won’t happen any time soon. In 2008 I rode that massive dump in value all the way to the bottom I’d rather catch an up trend from the current $166,000.00 as opposed to $70 or $80,000, even if I miss a bit of the initial up-tick. Right now it doesn’t seem like a risk at all to me. Edited to add: As I check the account now, it is all in cash
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Post by FlyonNylon on May 10, 2022 16:42:13 GMT -5
I’ve been buying. Sold some index funds to pick up 50 GOOGL shares at $2300 in the IRA and considering doing the same in my taxable acct with AMZN..
Am typically a pretty conservative “boglehead” type investor but am 5-7 yrs from FIRE at least so it’s tempting.
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Post by Larry Madsen on May 10, 2022 16:50:46 GMT -5
At some point here (maybe even now for some) it will be time to buy. I have some tracking on the primary markets and they are all down from my Jan 24th move date. This (first column) as of the end of April and they are lower that these numbers now. DJIA - 4% -6% NASDAC -11% -15% S&P 500 -6% -9% Russell 2000 -9% -13% Edited to add: The second column is as of tonight 5-10-2022
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Post by reverendrob on May 10, 2022 22:29:59 GMT -5
Real men invested in magic beans and tulip bulbs.
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Post by slacker 🐨 on May 12, 2022 19:13:22 GMT -5
My portfolio is unique. Moving would trigger capitol gains at basically zero basis. Plus I've got what should be fairly stable income investments that should carry me through a drop in the market. Bailing now would be disaster. My account is specifically designed for the long haul.
I'll ride it out. If I get into trouble it's almost certainly a time where my investment in lead is the one I need.
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Post by Larry Madsen on May 12, 2022 21:37:58 GMT -5
We have two other 401K accounts. Our three moves to cash cost us nothing ... so that was good.
I know I feel much better watching these daily drops in the market, all the while, knowing we are no longer suffering any losses.
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Post by slacker 🐨 on May 13, 2022 9:06:36 GMT -5
I specifically avoid looking on a daily basis....or even weekly. With long term investments, what happens today, this week or this quarter isn't a big concern. For me it's "where will it be 15 years from now?". Whether that strategy is good, bad or ugly, it saves me a lot of stress.
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Post by hushnel on May 13, 2022 14:55:01 GMT -5
I’m pretty much an idiot when it comes to savings and investments, however I can understand this stuff when it’s explained to me.
Early in my career, this company known as VALIC came to the shop and spoke with a co-worker and me, he was savvy about this stuff. What I did was automatically transfer paycheck raises before taxes, into this VALIC account, it has something to do with the Florida Teacher’s Association, I figure teachers are pretty savvy. Once or twice over the years my wife told me things were getting tight, so I would tell VALIC to put my next raise into my checking account. The next raise would be going back into Valic. The interest rate seems a little low to me, it’s locked in at 4%. My friend who I tour the country with every year, tells me 4% isn’t bad, she wasn’t getting that in the stock market and her other investments, at the time. I started this sometime back in 1985-86.
I made one withdraw shortly after I retired to the farm, I needed a Tractor. I don’t usually pay any attention to this account, but I did kind of freak out when I saw the balance after that withdrawal. I haven’t touched it since, but I’m amazed how quickly it recovered and grew. Plus we own, one with a small mortgage, three properties with houses, two in Homestead FL, south of Miami and the 21.2 acre farm I live on.
We’re doing OK for a retired bench tech. My wife has never needed to work. I have two traditional savings accounts as well, we rarely use, like occasionally vacations and stuff that is outside the budget. I roll cash into these savings accounts when extra cash needs a place. We have a rather large balance in the checking account as well. It makes my wife happy to have it available, for the bigger things that is usually not accounted for in the budget, but needs to be dealt with.
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Post by Larry Madsen on May 18, 2022 21:39:02 GMT -5
it saves me a lot of stress. I must say, It's nice to see a day in the market like today ... knowing it had no impact.
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Post by slacker 🐨 on May 19, 2022 9:28:05 GMT -5
it saves me a lot of stress. I must say, It's nice to see a day in the market like today ... knowing it had no impact. Ha! I don't even know what happened in the market yesterday. I don't follow it at all. The reality is that, for the long term investor....no real impact either. Corrections happen, but it's the long term growth that matters to me.
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Post by Larry Madsen on May 19, 2022 16:38:37 GMT -5
I must say, It's nice to see a day in the market like today ... knowing it had no impact. Ha! I don't even know what happened in the market yesterday. Complete bliss. 😜
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Post by Larry Madsen on Jun 10, 2022 19:06:46 GMT -5
This (first column) as of the end of April. DJIA - 4% -6% NASDAC -11% -15% S&P 500 -6% -9% Russell 2000 -9% -13% Edited to add: The second column is as of 5-10-2022 Another month down the road 6-10-2022 ... DJIA -9% NASDAC -18% S&P 500 -12% Russell 2000 -11% And just where is any safe harbor? Turn it to cash and it loses value daily. I have no idea what to do. I would suggest that losing some to inflation and retaining the basis is better than losing to both inflation and actual investment dollars during the same timeframe.
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Post by Larry Madsen on Jul 1, 2022 6:57:08 GMT -5
End of June since Jan 24th ...
DJIA -10% NASDAC -20% S&P 500 -14% Russell 2000 -16%
Off their all-time highs just prior to the end of 2021. -16.37% -31.31% -21.08% -30.09%
My understanding is: One of the gauges/indications of a recession is when markets are below 20% of their all-time highs.
Still zero regrets about moving my investments. They are all growing.
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Post by Larry Madsen on Aug 1, 2022 10:59:57 GMT -5
It's that time. Time to begin thinking about places to get back in. I have not made any trades on my own since I pulled out, so I'll be getting the hang of how this works within Schwab. Just moved ten grand into this one: Parametric Commodity Strategy Fund Class A (EAPCX). It's a no load, no fee transaction within my Schwab account It carries a .91% *fund* expense ratio but has outperformed that by a fair bit over time. Rated as high return and moderate risk, again over time. I have a couple of others I will move larger sums into once I see how this first transaction plays out. As for that .91% fee. I had been paying 1.50% to the advisor I took the account away from. The .91% isn't too scarry after I take that into account.
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Post by Larry Madsen on Dec 19, 2023 13:42:51 GMT -5
Back to this old thread. I have concluded the market might be safer for the near future. I had gone back in a while back on a fairly small scale, made a couple of adjustments. From the time I initially went to cash in January of 2022 to now the accounts are up about 8% (over the near 2 years). Largely just money market returns. Getting back into a much larger extent now. Things I am hearing and the fact that it is an election year, give me some confidence over the next 6 to 10 months. We shall see. If anyone has any interest in this sort of thing ... This is an overview of the market, since I got out in January of 2022. Red indicates end of month below the level in January 2022. Green end of month above. spread sheet by Larry Madsen, on Flickr
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Post by FlyonNylon on Dec 19, 2023 15:09:22 GMT -5
Certainly looks like the market has adapted to the higher interest rate environment and is trying to price-in growth for possible rate cuts this year, or at the least, continued stability from the Fed.
Who knows though how much of those "gains" were reflected in the last few months? This is why I try not to time the market, just keep buying and try not to look at it..
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Post by Larry Madsen on Dec 19, 2023 15:55:43 GMT -5
I try not to time the market Yes indeed, the time tested and common rationale for not touching things. Not quite sure I call my tactics "timing the market". I rode the 2008 market to a 50 to 60% loss (as did many). As much as I thought I should get out at the end of 2021, I waited and dumped a bunch before I got out in January 2022. I was determined to not repeat 2008. I figure my accounts grew during a very volatile 2 year stretch. I'm good with that. I do now feel much more confident though for the next say, 10 months. Along with that, I intend to start Social Security Retirment benefits next month. We can cover our monthly living expenses with just that monthly payment. This will allow both Queenie and I to greatly increase our 401K investments for the remainder of our working life. I'm contributing 40% now, so I'll likely up that to 50 or 55%, Queenie will decide for herself how much she will do. Plan being to use 401K to reduce taxable income from the added S.S. $$$ as well as the obvious boost to retirement accounts.
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Post by Leftee on Dec 19, 2023 16:00:22 GMT -5
At 62, I’m risk-averse. No matter how much I have, I don’t want to lose any of it.
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Post by Larry Madsen on Dec 19, 2023 16:32:23 GMT -5
I don’t have a lot of fear toward relatively aggressive investments. I moved about 20k into one.
One thing I have done to a large extent is select targeted retirement funds. The more distant they are looking to the future the more aggressive the are. A nearer horizon fund will be much less aggressive. I have some in funds targeting 2065 and some in funds looking to 2035 and targets in between as well.
I give no thought to looking for things expecting wildly huge returns.
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Post by Mfitz804 on Dec 19, 2023 18:55:36 GMT -5
I just keep buying stuff that I expect will never really go down long term. It’s been a successful strategy so far. I have a little more Tesla than I think I should and I may address that when the market opens Monday.
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Post by Lesterstrat on Dec 19, 2023 19:01:25 GMT -5
Just gonna throw out the disclosure, take investing or stock advice from people on the internet at your own discretion, the views expressed herein are not those of Moe’s but rather each individual poster. I give similar disclaimers. Whenever someone finds out I’m a CPA (retired now days), it’s rare I don’t get some sort of financial inquiry ranging from taxes to investing advice. And, don’t even get me started on the business plan questions. I think most people understand there are a myriad of areas of law, medicine, etc… But, apparently word has never gotten out that the same applies to accountants.
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Post by Seldom Seen on Dec 19, 2023 19:25:15 GMT -5
By last Friday, I’d regained everything I’d lost the prior 3 years. Presidential election years don’t generally see large market losses so I feel okay about my investment direction. I’m generally invested in a moderate growth managed account ~30/70 treasuries/equities and I’ve kept my wife’s account at ~40/60 treasuries/equities. I’m shooting for a realistic 6% average return long-term which is really what I’ve achieved in real estate and investment accounts through the years. I’m an engineer not a miracle worker.
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Post by Larry Madsen on Dec 19, 2023 19:48:40 GMT -5
Presidential election years don’t generally see large market losses so I feel okay about my investment direction. You and I see that alike. I got out to avoid potential big losses and to a large degree I did. In retrospect had I got back in in October I would have caught a low point, but then again ... My intention is not trying to "time the market". I'm tending to my personal comfort level. My only regret now is not pulling the account mentioned earlier in the thread from the management company I had running it. I called them in January intending to get it to safe harbor and they pretty much refused. I relented and let them run with it for another 3 months. By the end of April and an additional 8% loss on the account I finally took over the account. In good times it's hard to complain about how they handle the account, but when things turn bad, they let you die with the "buy & hold" strategy. For me, I see no problem bailing out when it is pretty clear the market is taking a nosedive. By getting out I avoided the downturn and am now back in with a small but consistent gain over that erratic 2 years. I'm in with the market at or a bit below where it was when I got out two years ago. My conscience is resting easy with how it played out.
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Post by Larry Madsen on Dec 19, 2023 20:00:13 GMT -5
I just keep buying stuff that I expect will never really go down long term. It’s been a successful strategy so far. I'm not sure If I mentioned this on the forum here or not. Nevada changed its laws on registering Classic Cars. My 67 Camaro had been registered on the Classic Car option with DMV. It has been for as long as we have had it. We had Nevada drivers registering their (for example) 95 Honda Civic as a Classic Car. This registration status can allow for an emissions testing exemption. Folks were jacking the system around to gain that smog exemption on common cars. The result is the new law requires that any car registered as a Classic must carry Classic Car insurance, which always limits milage and usage for the car. I drive my Camaro daily to work. I can't have Classic Car insurance on a daily driver. Even though I did not need a smog exemption (67 and older are exempt anyway), I had to give up the Classic registration. My plate was "Classic Rod 1967" cool plate on a 1967 Camaro. This did though compel me to get a new appraisal on the Camaro. Years ago, it had been valued at $8,500.00. I assumed maybe $15,000.00. The new appraisal came in at $40,000.00. I guess I shouldn't argue the point.
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Post by Mfitz804 on Dec 19, 2023 21:10:06 GMT -5
Just gonna throw out the disclosure, take investing or stock advice from people on the internet at your own discretion, the views expressed herein are not those of Moe’s but rather each individual poster. I give similar disclaimers. Whenever someone finds out I’m a CPA (retired now days), it’s rare I don’t get some sort of financial inquiry ranging from taxes to investing advice. And, don’t even get me started on the business plan questions. I think most people understand there are a myriad of areas of law, medicine, etc… But, apparently word has never gotten out that the same applies to accountants. Many people do NOT understand that about the law, I can verify that. It reminds me of the scene in the movie Rounders, when someone asks Matt Damon, a law student, about whether it’s legal for Steinbrenner to screw up the Yankees roster like he was, and Damon replies something along the lines of “we don’t cover Steinbrenner until third year”.
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Jake
Wholenote
Posts: 573
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Post by Jake on Dec 20, 2023 9:59:08 GMT -5
Close to all time highs again. There is usually no reason to shift all of your money at once. There is usually no reason to alter a rational allocation scheme due to market conditions. Big life changes all of a sudden? There is perhaps a reason to make big shifts. Risk cannot be eliminated, it is only to be managed.
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Post by slacker 🐨 on Dec 20, 2023 10:32:09 GMT -5
The vast majority of my holdings trigger huge tax hit if I sell and I consider them long term investments anyway...more for my kids than me. It would take a huge and protracted downswing to be better off moving my investments rather than riding out a downswing.
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chucksmi
Wholenote
Posts: 178
Formerly Known As: Offshore Angler elsewhere
Age: I saw Jerry Live
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Post by chucksmi on Dec 21, 2023 6:18:46 GMT -5
It depends on where you are in life. Me, I'm an old fart and so I picked a short horizon fun. Despite all the propaganda to the contrary, the market is soaring again.
Funny how things have flipped. In the old days election years were always great investment times, just not a good time to buy advertising since the politicians ran up the price of poontang so much. Nowadays, with the politics of negative gloom and doom election years tend to stagnate.
But like I said, it's all about where you are in life, and if you're retirement age like me you start looking more at dividends than share price. Investing on share price expectations is always risky. You'll read great stories of people making 20% gains and stuff but that only happens in volatile markets with substantial ( and usually unsustainable) risk. Take NFTs, or Crypto, for example. Not a good long-term strategy!
With the elimination of standards the Reserve Banks are now nothing more than "policy setters" and places for the USG to store cash, so yeah, cash is a really, really bad strategy. A well-managed fund is still a good way for the small time investor to go as long as they have reasonable expectations.
Trying to get rich quick is the fastest way to go broke. My $.02 , anyway.
Chuck
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